The sun has slumped to its present lull from a very fiery 2011, seeming to contradict a widely predicted 2013 peak in solar flares, sunspots and other activity for the current Solar Cycle 24. But the forecasts may be right after all, said solar physicist Dean Pesnell, of NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center in Greenbelt, Md
"This is solar maximum," Pesnell, project scientist for NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory spacecraft, said in a statement. "But it looks different from what we expected because it is double-peaked." Though the sun's activity cycle is often regarded as a smooth bell curve, proceeding from low to high and then back down to low again, twin peaks are apparently not too uncommon. The last two solar maxima — which occurred in 1989 and 2001 — were doubled-peaked, exhibiting mini-cycles that lasted about two years, Pesnell added.
So the 2011 surge may just have been part one of Solar Cycle 24's fireworks display.
"I am comfortable in saying that another peak will happen in 2013 and possibly last into 2014," Pesnell said.
If a second peak does occur in 2013, activity in the sun's southern half might be the main driver. Our star's northern and southern hemispheres sometimes peak at different times, researchers said, and the south has been significantly quieter than the north thus far in Solar Cycle 24.
Pesnell is a member of the Solar Cycle Prediction Panel, a group of solar physicists who gathered in 2006 and 2008 to forecast the next solar maximum. Weaving together a number of lines of evidence, including Solar Cycle 24's very deep minimum five or so years ago, the group made the following prediction:
"The panel has decided that the next solar cycle (Cycle 24) will be below average in intensity, with a maximum sunspot number of 90. Given the date of solar minimum and the predicted maximum intensity, solar maximum is now expected to occur in May 2013."
Read more: http://www.foxnews.com/science/2013/03/06/sun-weather-cycle-may-have-second-peak-this-year/#ixzz2MpvhjLXh
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The arc of light heading towards the earth is a coronoal mass ejection, which impacts the earth's magnetic field (shown in purple), causing magnetic storms.Solar activity occurring miles outside Earth’s atmosphere, for example, can trigger magnetic storms on Earth. These storms are visually stunning, but they can set our modern infrastructure spinning.On Jan. 19, scientists saw a solar flare in an active region of the Sun, along with a concentrated blast of solar-wind plasma and magnetic field lines known as a coronal mass ejection that burst from the Sun’s surface and appeared to be headed for Earth.When these solar winds met Earth’s magnetic field, the interaction created one of the largest magnetic storms on Earth recorded in the past few years. The storm peaked on Jan. 24, just as another storm began.“These new storms, and the storm we witnessed on Sept 26, 2011, indicate the up-tick in activity coming with the Earth’s ascent into the next solar maximum,” said USGS geophysicist Jeffrey Love.” This solar maximum is the period of greatest activity in the solar cycle of the Sun, and it is predicted to occur sometime in end of 2012 - 2013, which will increase the amount of magnetic storms on Earth. Magnetic storms, said Love, are a space weather phenomenon responsible for the breathtaking lights of the aurora borealis, but also sometimes for the disruption of technology and infrastructure our modern society depends on. Large magnetic storms, for example, can interrupt radio communication, interfere with global-positioning systems, disrupt oil and gas well drilling, damage satellites and affect their operations, and even cause electrical blackouts by inducing voltage surges in electric power grids.